We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future [carbon] emissions.

We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future [carbon] emissions.

An alarming study out this week raised a dire warning about the future of the planet and humanity, suggesting a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean could totally collapse as early as 2025 — a frightening scenario that was the premis

An alarming study out this week raised a dire warning about the future of the planet and humanity, suggesting a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean could totally collapse as early as 2025 — a frightening scenario that was the premise for the 2004 film "The Day After Tomorrow." 

The study in question, published in Nature Communications, focuses on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a system of ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean popularly known as the Gulf Stream. This system is part of a global conveyor belt as it circulates water from north to south in the Atlantic, helping disperse warm waters. This system, along with other ocean currents, is crucial to helping maintain the Earth's climate — and scientists believe it is being affected by climate change, as melting ice alters the balance in northern waters.

The AMOC "is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region," the study says, adding that there has been other research in recent years indicating that its circulation is weakening. 

"We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future [carbon] emissions," the study says. 

Peter Ditlevsen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and the lead author of the study, told CBS News he believes it's "most likely" the system could collapse in about 30 years, around 2057. In the study, the range for a collapse was estimated to be anywhere between 2025 and 2095. 

But, he says, there's an "uncertainty": "You cannot be completely sure." 

That's because measurements of the AMOC only go back 20 years, providing a small amount of data to work into configurations. So his team looked at records of sea surface temperatures and climate model simulations to try to predict the fate of the current system.

But some scientists say that while a collapse is possible, it's just one of many potential scenarios that could unfold and is unlikely to occur this century. 

Jochem Marotzke, a professor of climate science and the director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, made the following comment on the study in question: "While the mathematics seem expertly done, the physical foundation is extremely shaky: It rests on the assumption that the collapse shown by simplified models correctly describes reality — but we simply do not know, and there is no serious discussion of these simplified models' shortcomings.' 

Read the entire CBS article at the URL at the bottom of this column

Read more on this topic at this NASA link:

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12629

And more at this BBC link:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66289494

And at this Le Monde link:

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/summer-reads/article/2023/08/21/the-gulf-stream-a-famous-current-held-up-as-a-symbol-earth-s-fragility_6101375_183.html

And even more at this Nature Communications link:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

And even more yet at Phys.Org:

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-atlantic-circulation-collapse-greater-climate.html